Posted by: Snake Oil Baron | April 16, 2009

Which Way Are They Headed?

As the recession drags on and the recovery continuing to be just around the next corner, many wealthy nations are seeing unemployment rates rise. They still seem low to me because I grew up in the days when North America and Europe were trying to emulate the Soviet Union on a gradualist basis rather than a revolutionary model. As this unemployment rise continues and the revenue pouring into oil producing nations stalls, there seems to be a chain reaction going on if various observers can be trusted in their observational observances. Now I have not been keeping track of the sources (bad form I know but hard cheese) but recently I have seen articles claiming that Eastern European migrant workers are leaving Western Europe as the jobs dry up and so the Chinese who moved into Poland and the like are moving back to China (now not all of the members of these groups is on the move but a significant fraction is). East Asians and South Asians who went to the Gulf states are returning (or being released from indentured servitude in some cases) and former Central Asian immigrants (e.g. Kazakhstanis) to Russia are headed home with the encouragement of various segments of Russian society. Those at the end of the chains like Kazakhstan are left receiving newly jobless youths, many of whom may have been in their host nations illegally and picked up some criminal survival skills.

Even nations which do not have a high return rate – maybe those who left have been in the host society long enough to put down roots – also have some problems from the combination of their history of reliance on emigration and the recession. People are starting to not leave for greener pastures in the numbers they used to as the pastures become less green. As remaining migrants in wealthy nations worry about the future they have started to send less money back home to the old country. Nations who have grown used to getting by on remittance money, oil revenue and charity might need to think up a new strategy unless recession weary Westerners are willing to drastically increase the charity they send.

Western governments are under rising pressure by worried citizens to limit immigration due to rising unemployment. There is also likely a reduction in pressure from businesses to let in cheap labour and a reduction in applicants wanting to come in anyway. Governments rarely do things when they are hard, they do them when they are easy. Changes to immigration laws are already being adopted (America being a possible exception as it seems to be readying itself to loosen immigration regulations). It will be interesting to see what effect these factors have on immigration rates to Western nations and whether they will reverse when the recession ends. Will the need for cheap labour and reduction in unemployment and public concern cause European nations to go back to more liberal migration laws? Or will companies start moving jobs to where the cheap labour is as the supply of European workers begins to dwindle with rising employment rates? If riots, anti-gay and antisemitic violence, terrorist attacks, fatwas, dubious human rights claims about the word Allah being discovered in advertising logos and calls for Shariah continue it might make European hesitant to return to more liberal immigration laws. Only time… will tell.



  1. Salut!
    Humanity will come back to try for the rest. Humanity will never be free of its hatred for the Balts. The success of the Balts in the face of so many attempts to destroy them, keep them down and enslave them puts the rest of You to shame. Humanity’s continued inability to finish off this group and inability to stop trying is a monument to humanity’s failure as an intelligent species. The UN’s continuous condemnation of Latvia refusal to stand still in large groups to make anti-European’s crappy rockets more lethal makes this clear. If I were in charge of Latvia I would start work on a deep space travel program because this planet will never be safe for them. Humanity’s incompetence at its genocidal yearnings will not protect the Latvians,Japanese,Greeks etc….. forever.
    There is no fire without fumes!

    Have a nice day:)

  2. Gee those words sound familiar. ;-)

    They sound very much like something I said somewhere about humanity’s relations with the Jews. The difference would be that it is not really true about the Balts to the anywhere near the extent of humanity’s visceral hatred of Jews. People wanting to destroy the Baltic people are a regional affair. Most of humanity does not even know where the Baltic region is let alone wish them any ill. Whereas you can find movements preaching hatred for Jews and blaming them for everything that is wrong with their land even in nations where there are no Jews.

    The main enemy of the Baltic people would likely be the Russian government and they are certainly a classic example of what is wrong with humanity. But even they are not raining rockets down on the Baltic citizens and then having the world cry bloody murder and genocide if the Baltic nations fight back. Also, if Russia were to scatter the Balkan people across the planet the rest of the world would probably not spend large amounts of time maligning them and trying to work up the will and power to finish them off.

    But I must thank you for mentioning the Balkans since it prodded me to look up the demographic situation of these nations and WOW. They are actually worse than Russia in certain respects. Even lower total fertility rates and similar average female age of around 41. The Baltic nations have some economic strengths that they can draw on but they are going to have trouble if they don’t either start having a lot more children, attract a lot more immigrants or make productivity gains of such an incomprehensible level that their economies will not notice the population collapse. Or some combination of those three.

    Thanks for commenting.

  3. That might have been an overly wordy response to a simple ribbing about a comment. Hopefully it didn’t sound touchy. I was merely pontificating in a non-hostile manner. When I pontificate in a hostile manner I make a lot more spelling and grammar mistakes. HULK SPEL BAD!!!!

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