Posted by: Snake Oil Baron | June 20, 2009

Iran and The Three Way Standoff

The supreme leader of Iran (I wonder if these Alpha Ayatollahs think that people want to blow them because of that title or if they just have the title to give themselves morning wood) has explained to the opposition that if they don’t sit down and shut up they will be responsible for the spilling of their own blood. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei first threw his support behind the presidential fire monkey Ahmadinejad but then effectively admitted the unbelievable nature of the vote in an attempt to defuse the emotion fueling the protest. He promised to look in to some of the more obscene instances of voting fraud and maybe pull down fire monkey’s victory to a more believable level. Then he admitted that this was a sham by saying that nothing much would change and so everyone should come together in national unity to shut the fuck up.

And now, having no electoral legitimacy for his pet president, and having lost the fear of the people, has no choice but to prepare for a bloody crackdown to try to regain that fear. While some of the army and police force have stated they will not turn their guns on the people and one highly placed cleric has issued a fatwah telling them that Allah will judge them harshly if they do, once the large-scale shooting starts there will be enough who want to be on the right side of the trigger and for good measure, the regime has been bringing in Hamas and Hezbollah agents to augment the domestic religious militias in some warm-up murders of protesters. Yes, that would be the same Hamas that Jimmy Carter wants to have de-listed as terrorists. Because you know… it’s kind of hurtful and counter productive to label someone as a terrorist just because they target random innocent people for death in an effort to use fear for political purposes.

Interestingly, the fire monkey in chief, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who for years has been putting revolutionary guard alumni like himself in important positions in what looks like preparation for a military coup, is not actually all together on the cleric’s side. Ahmadinejad, as someone wrote recently, currently has to answer to 12 men. These holy rollers are extreme, no doubt, they also like the power and money and prostitutes that come with the job. Ahmi’s plan to bring on the end of the world by squandering the last remaining oil wealth nuking everyone he dislikes, starting with Israel, is a bit of a harder sell compared to their plan of threatening to nuke everyone and then negotiating forever for more stuff while never giving an inch – the North Korean model. So Ahmi would really like to put his old uniform back on and become a full-on  dictator instead of a high ranking oligarch. If the clerics don’t order the crackdown, fire monkey and company could stage a coup, restore order until all the streets are red and give the ayatollahs the option of keeping some power, money and prostitutes (and their heads) if they become his kennel of mutts.

So there you have it, the reformers, the clerics and Ahmadi’s army. The first two to blink lose big time.

Some interesting reactions have taken place across the world. Obama went from praising the election to being troubled. Then he was very troubled. Then he was almost committed to a side. Now he feels support for the opposition as long as they are peaceful – while being bloodied by Hamas and Hezbollah and the Basij or when the real shooting starts? Even Egypt, that beacon of human rights which jails bloggers and has cops sodomize people who protest the open acts of sexual harassment of women in the street, has slammed Obama for not being able to grow a pair.

The leftist media went from ignoring the issue completely, as they have with other mass mass protests in Iran during previous years, to being embarrassed when they were outperformed by an electronic gossip application called Twitter. Now, the Daily Kos is whining that Americans are eating popcorn during these events (what does Obama have on his popcorn) and Andrew Sullivan feels that all the Jews and conservatives (who were covering the protests from the beginning) are in league with the Iranian regime against the protesters.

And even if the pro-democracy forces win, which would take more than just getting their leader in office, and a real secular democracy began to take root in Iran, they would face years of terror attacks by the theocrats; something more to blame on Bush no doubt.

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Responses

  1. The problem I have at the moment is that a lot of the pundits are attaching “Democracy!!1!!” to these protests. Yes, some are protesting the election results, and I believe a good portion of the Iranian people want a return to more secular ways (pre-1979, but without the Shah this time).

    Trouble is, a lot of these protesters, while ostensibly upset about the election outcome, want more of a theocracy – a return to the revolutions ideals, as it were. They are miffed about Ahmadi’s fascist tendencies and the heavy-handedness of the IRG.

    So I guess what I’m trying to say is that while I would love to see Iran become a secular, Western-style democracy, I fear that a large chunk of protesters aren’t digging the whole women-can-vote thing, and are modeling themselves on pre-invasion Afghanistan. Which would suck for us, especially if they have nukes.

  2. While I have no doubt that there is such an element in Iranian society and within the protests, I haven’t gotten the impression of them being a major component of the movement. Granted my view of the country is coloured by the impressions bestowed by the urban regions. I have noticed many young women in the streets (some carrying rocks, God love them) who are distinctively “mal-veiled”, showing a lot more hair than is legal and the male protesters seem cool with it.

    There is a lot of dissatisfaction with the clerics, the system and even Islam itself in Iran among the youth. Having religious militia thugs come on to your campus and beat people at random whenever the please is far from good publicity.

    In the end it might not matter what any faction of the populous wants – at least not on a geopolitical scale. With decaying oil infrastructure (and weak prices), an economy that is bleeding from its rouge state status and a population which is united no longer in fear, whatever emerges from Iran (assuming no return to the status quo) will likely not be as efficient a trouble maker as it is now. It’s hard to export terrorism to the neighborhood while fighting a civil war on a shoe string budget.

  3. You said it – I think oil prices have gone a long way to push underlying tensions to the tipping point..

    I dunno, I see the modern chicks in a lot of the crowd shots (Iran has some really hot women, BTW) too, but I also hear a lot of the ol’ “Allahu Akbar” chanting. Probably not wise to come to any broad conclusions based on video snapshots, though.

    I just keep thinking about what Kissinger said during the Iran-Iraq war: “It’s too bad they can’t both lose.” In this case meaning, of course, the theocrats and the fascists. But I take your point. Failing a full-blown secular democracy, I’ll settle for them weak and quiet on the world stage. Sadly, the Iraq war has taught me that trying to export freedom through military force is a bridge too far.

  4. While I am not completely discouraged about Iraq’s potential, I think the far more efficient method is to just keep undermining (through force or other means) regimes, let the nation try to restructure and if what emerges is still a danger to itself and others, destabilize again. I call it the old jukebox approach; keep whacking it until it works.

    Speaking of getting whacked, I wonder how long before the Iranian Kurds, Sunni Arabs and other pissed off minority groups smell the ayatollah blood in the water.


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